Forum
possible ec swell... again
still havent quite got the hang of these weather charts.. but say this map holds true what are the chances of another ec swell? and why ?
Chances are good because the troppo will have a good fetch pointing at the NE coast...the red bits are where it should be producing the waves as the wind is going clockwise around the cyclone
Or you could just go by the 24hr and/or 7 day forecasts. EC (Hawke's bay, Ocean Beach) is going off at the moment, but the swell is coming from the South.
I wouldn't hold out too much hope for the swell Nick.... too much fetch, and not enough grunt in the low...combated by westerlies and south westerlies for the next several days...or so some bloke told me.
--------------------------------
“I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there”
well nicko, it's 7 days out..so who knows? anything could happen between then and now.
looks to me like haarp has been set up in us samoa...
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
yeah 7 days out in NZ is never a good indication of anything we are a tiny island in just above the roaring 40s so weather will change even 3 days out can be a stretch to be accurate
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
true that.
mind you..the bottom part is fairly dependable this time of yr...looks mighty fine for catlins all the way up to gissy.
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
There's a bit of a pulse out east now.
I've seen troppos that were off the usual map produce swell here so you never know...
not sure its a troppo though Sir Fer....merely a gale warning.
--------------------------------
“I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there”
theres a definate T in the circle for the maps next couple of days but no real pressure in it yet
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
Originally posted by: sir fer
There's a bit of a pulse out east now.
I've seen troppos that were off the usual map produce swell here so you never know...
swells will travel thousands of k's if wind doesn't kill it.
i've heard that the california crew will watch whats happening below(and east) nz and expect surf from here to reach there within 10-15 days.
look at Indonesia..i heard a good portion of their swell comes from real deep in the indian ocean..pretty much swells that get generated around antartica end up there.
naturally that could all be a load of bollix..
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
Originally posted by: Jabes
theres a definate T in the circle for the maps next couple of days but no real pressure in it yet
T could mean 'trick'..wouldn't be the first time.
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
dirty hobbits
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
Will Tay St get waves this weekend?
Originally posted by: seeka #999Originally posted by: sir fer
There's a bit of a pulse out east now.
I've seen troppos that were off the usual map produce swell here so you never know...
swells will travel thousands of k's if wind doesn't kill it.
i've heard that the california crew will watch whats happening below(and east) nz and expect surf from here to reach there within 10-15 days.
look at Indonesia..i heard a good portion of their swell comes from real deep in the indian ocean..pretty much swells that get generated around antartica end up there.
naturally that could all be a load of bollix..
north shore hawaiis big winter swells come from storms in the aleutian islands off alaska.
--------------------------------
breaking chinese hearts since 2009
yeah.
and cloud break breaks best in a southerly swell..usually from lows that zip past dunners
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
Originally posted by: 2020
I wouldn't hold out too much hope for the swell Nick.... too much fetch, and not enough grunt in the low...combated by westerlies and south westerlies for the next several days...or so some bloke told me.
Steady 2020... sounds like you surf from that knowledgeable paragraph
--------------------------------
Do you know what a Nemesis is.......?
... some bloke who surfs told me all about it Statik.
He said he admires youthful opitimism though- and hopes Nick is right.
--------------------------------
“I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there”
Too much fetch? Sounds like 'I have too much money'
That bunch of isobars shows a significant pressure gradient. The letter on a map is merely a label.
That red zone has winds pointing straight at NZ and IMO there is a good chance of swell.
*edited 10 Feb 2010 17:55
Tay st is going off!!!!!
--------------------------------
Member Number : 565. Member Of the Sub-1000 club.
*edited 10 Feb 2010 10:59
The red bit just indicates heavy rain. Nothing to do with fetch or wind speed.
It will only produce usable swell for me if the depression tracks slowly south. If it goes too fast south, or goes west, it's useless.
\edit: that depression down south looks more certain to make a good swell in the medium time frame
if you look at the new maps then that low is not going to be as intense now looks like will be a nothing maybe a 1/2 ft swell unless you know where to go in which case will be 6ft and firing offshores 
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
*edited 10 Feb 2010 11:11
No one said the red bit represented anything.
Just happens to be where the fetch probably is.
Still some potential there but significantly less pulse out east now 
You wouldn't know fetch if it hit you over the head.
Fetch is the distance winds travel in a straight line:
http://www.surfline.com/surfology/surfology_glossary_index.cfm?target=fetch [surfline.com]
i say ice knows way more than sir fer on this topic.
--------------------------------
Member Number : 564. Member Of the Sub-1000 club.
I say Ice has trouble knowing anything he didn't read on the internet.
Originally posted by: Ice
*edited 10 Feb 2010 10:59
The red bit just indicates heavy rain. Nothing to do with fetch or wind speed.
It will only produce usable swell for me if the depression tracks slowly south. If it goes too fast south, or goes west, it's useless.
\edit: that depression down south looks more certain to make a good swell in the medium time frame
I agree... what part of thecountry are you in though Ice?
--------------------------------
“I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there”
Actually the fetch is probably to the south, south east of the red bit, just below the '1000' mark.
Happy now?
And what is the fundamental wave generation formula? Google and me have never heard of it. This http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract;jsessionid=6985B66C1841E16DB65F9078CB1F484C.tomcat1?fromPage=online&aid=364367 [journals.cambridge.org] looks interesting tho.
Originally posted by: 2020Originally posted by: Ice
*edited 10 Feb 2010 10:59
The red bit just indicates heavy rain. Nothing to do with fetch or wind speed.
It will only produce usable swell for me if the depression tracks slowly south. If it goes too fast south, or goes west, it's useless.
\edit: that depression down south looks more certain to make a good swell in the medium time frame
I agree... what part of thecountry are you in though Ice?
2020 - I'm in Wgtn, means I can get to west, south and east coasts, provided a bit of negotiation with family and employer
I stand corrected it is a troppo (TC Pat) and has beaten up the Cooks overnight- so nick- you never know your luck
--------------------------------
“I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there”
i think you should self flagellate as a penance 20/20
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
Hold 2020, before you start flagellating. TC Pat is a different system to that forecast in a week or so. Check out the metservice 3 day forecastt. You'll see the TC gradually fade out. The two depressions above it are the interesting ones that are kind-of in Nick's chart.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/national/maps-rain-radar/maps/sw-pacific-future-series [metservice.co.nz]
A second tropical cyclone is forecast to hit the Cook Islands after a State of Disaster has been declared on the island of Aitutaki.
The Fiji Meteorological Service is forecasting Cyclone Rene to hit Nassau, Pukapuka, Suwarrow and nearby islands with gale force winds.
still cook islands area doesn't always make a good wave for us really need it to be around samoa but thats looks to be where renee is heading
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
Anyone surfed the cook Is?
Looked like a bit of potential on the news last night and it's somewhere I've always wanted to go...
Originally posted by: sir fer
Anyone surfed the cook Is?
Looked like a bit of potential on the news last night and it's somewhere I've always wanted to go...
Pack your fast take off's or your Eski bro. Super quick and super shallow. Check out an old NZ surf vid by NZ Surfing called SOS surfers overseas. It has Motu getting shacked on the Rights at the Airport I think.
--------------------------------
I am a Maori Potatoe.
the far north eastern quadrant of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) has been incredibly active, as a result of strong El Nino induced warming in the central tropical Pacific and lately, a strong slow moving MJO signal in the area. We saw TC Pat named in Wednesday's forecast and now TC Rene has formed hot on it's heels.
"Another tropical low in an area of the South Pacific bounded by the Solomons, Vanautu, Tuvalu and Fiji is being watched for further development. "
third tropical low in like 3 days ? whoa! whoever said this summers looking miserable may be wrong. i do recall jabes saying that with the el nino comes more tropical cyclones.... u might be on to something old boy
dont give me the credit give it to science and its never ending watch of nature
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
Ive surfed raro....really shallow and heavy and shaaarrrrppp.
--------------------------------
Member Number : 565. Member Of the Sub-1000 club.
heading to the goldy in a few weeks..hope this cyclone pattern continues...and i can borrow a stick of some cobber.
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
thursday is looking good.
you been goldy before seeka? theres no shortage of board hire places. hit up burliegh heads! such a sick wave
--------------------------------
Member Number : 564. Member Of the Sub-1000 club.
buy one there from any hock shop on the main hiway,theres a deal a day on the goldy.burliegh pumps but you will love t.o.s
--------------------------------
beam me up scotty this place sucks
whats t.o.s jelly?
yeah Snap, last i was there i surfed kirra during cyclone bola. i checked burliegh, but had a hell crew on it.
thanks for the heads up...looks like i may buy a dunga for the week, then sell it or give it to some grom on the beach..the rental option seemed a bit expensive from what i've seen.
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
about to get some waves down here big south swell tomorrow is on off shore to yeeeeeeeeee harrrr
Originally posted by: seeka #999the other side sth stradbroke island best beachy in gotham city
whats t.o.s jelly?
yeah Snap, last i was there i surfed kirra during cyclone bola. i checked burliegh, but had a hell crew on it.
thanks for the heads up...looks like i may buy a dunga for the week, then sell it or give it to some grm on the beach..the rental option seemed a bit expensive from what i've seen.
--------------------------------
beam me up scotty this place sucks
so nick where are you going to hit up thurs? should be a good size everywhere!
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
Dont jinx this swell mofos!
its all a myth..onshore anyway
--------------------------------
member #865 sub 1000 front
Originally posted by: PooTube
Dont jinx this swell mofos!
Even God couldn't stop this swell arriving Poo Tube.
--------------------------------
“I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there”
man, looking good for the goldy points. this time if i make it to noosa again i will defiantly not forget a board...and hopefully i can get over the most tragic event of my surfing existence.
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.
pretty fun out east today 
good 3 ft with bigger sets what hoping for more size tho
--------------------------------
Shoreboys Pray4surf free since 09
I am GOD....and can advise you all that the swell will be dease. God bless
dease?
1/2-1ft onshore on the northshore
--------------------------------
member #865 sub 1000 front
yeah 'dease', it's a new word from god Freshie and is a cross between 'dead' & 'ease'
--------------------------------
trying to ignore the voices in my head, but sometimes they have some damn good ideas.