Two Horse Race. Mick or Joel?

Comment Share Posted on Friday November 27th 2009 at 6:22 a.m. Tweet

Two time World champion Damien Hardman shares his views on this year’s world title climax. Thanks to Surfing World Magazine. Issue 298 is now out in New Zealand.

When was the last time two Aussies went into the last event of the ASP season sitting at one and two in the race for the World Title? You have to look all the way back to 1998 when good mates Dan Wills and Mick Campbell were neck and neck heading into Pipeline. Unfortunately Kelly Slater was sitting in third and he leapfrogged the Aussie boys in huge conditions to steal his sixth crown. We've had virtually no reason to get excited about any Title decider in Hawaii ever since... until now.

The Combatants
Joel Parkinson and Mick Fanning are sitting first and second with daylight third so it's likely we'll have our first all-Aussie two-horse race in a long time. A month ago everyone thought this year's Title was a done deal, that Parko had it in the bag. Nobody even mentioned Mick, in fact at that stage (J-Bay) Kelly was supposedly the only guy who had a shot. Now with Parko capitulating in early rounds in both the US and French events (due to injury) and Mick having won both, the gap between the two lifelong mates (at time of writing) is a mere 140 points - that's less than a place! I think Mick is in a great position to come home as the underdog and run Parko down at Pipe.

Pressure Vs Momentum
From my own experience, there's like winning a World Title in the final event of the year. Unlike Parko, I never got off to a huge early lead. I was always slow off the mark, I'd start doing quite well mid-year and finish strong. Having said that, the first World Title I won I was coming into the Aussie leg (which was the final leg in 1987) off three 17ths in a row! I was fifth on the ratings and a total underdog when it came to any chance of winning. But it worked to my advantage because I had no pressure on me at all and I still believed I could do it. It was the guys in the lead who had to deal with the pressure. If everyone is expecting you to win, as has been the case with Parko this year, that pressure is magnified. Still, Parko seems to me like he'd be a good underdog - a guy with the potential to summon up something special when the chips are down and his back is against the wall. Losing early in those last two events is much more likely to see him fire up than wither. It's possible he might actually feel better if he was behind Mick on the ratings going into Pipe. Possible...
Of course, momentum and confidence are a lethal combination in all sport. Having been in similar situations to what's going on now, I have to admit I'd rather be in Mick's position. I think if I was in Parko's position and I had a big lead that had been chipped away I'd be feeling it. Big leads are good. Small leads can wear you down.

The Run Home
Mick's on a roll, any hiccups through Europe could knock a bit of wind out of his sails, but looking at the way both he and Joel have approached this year it's game on - all the way to the end. Joel has looked the most committed. He came out of the gates clearly wanting a Title and he's put everything into it. He's super hungry, he's surrounded himself with good people, it's helped his preparation and he was near unstoppable early on. It's a similar approach to Mick's in 2007. Nobody wanted it more than Mick that year. Mick probably started this year not quite as hungry as Joel, but now the curtains are closing and he's right there you can see he's got that head back on too. They're both as hungry as each other. Who wants it most though? That's what will decide it.
The fact Mick knows how to win a World Title is valuable experience - no question, but I don't think it's as big an advantage as some might think. Both these surfers are seasoned competitors. They're not grommets anymore and they're not rookies. How the '07 Crown will work in Mick's favour is that he doesn't have the monkey on his back. At the end of the day whether he wins or loses, he's still gonna be a World Champion. That mean he can let it all hang out.

Hawaii
Joel probably has a bigger reputation in Hawaii than Mick, but I've seen both of them surf Pipe and Backdoor and I wouldn't say there are head and shoulders between them. I think they're pretty even at Backdoor with Joel maybe getting a slight edge at Pipe.
Parko will have the mental edge having won last year's Triple Crown but there's a wildcard to consider and that's the Pipe wildcards. The locals come in like a wrecking ball and can screw up your entire season just like that. They can derail a World Title bid in the blink of an eye. Sure, you gotta beat everyone if you want to be the World Champion, but the Pipe specialists are an anomaly. Parko and Mick would smash them anywhere else in the world but at Pipe the playing field tilts the other way. In some ways it makes it that much more exciting. The boys will have to be on their game.

My Tip
Whatever happens in the wash up we're gonna have a new World Champ and it's very likely he's gonna be Australian. I don't particularly have a favourite. If I had to put my money on someone at this stage it'd be Mick, but I'd really like to see Joel win it as well. Both guys are great surfers and worthy champions.

- Damien Hardman

Damien Hardman was the ASP World Title in 1987 and 1992. He now works for Rip Curl and is contest director of both The Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach and The Rip Curl Search Event.

Issue 298 out now.
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